STAT-UP provides COVID-19 pandemic forecasts for decision-makers in state, federal state and local authorities
Munich, April 12, 2021
Where do the incidence values stand in the individual cities and counties of Germany in two weeks? How do the figures develop at local and regional level under different opening or lockdown scenarios? And how do possible measures affect incidence values and hospital bed utilization? The Munich-based data science company STAT-UP is now supporting German crisis teams and political decision-makers at all levels with the free Corona Care app SUCCe-D.
While the Robert Koch Institute (the German federal agency in charge of collecting the pandemic data and advising the German government on the pandemic strategy) documents the pandemic situation in figures on a daily basis and in retrospect, STAT-UP uses the SUCCe-D platform to provide those responsible in politics and administration in cities and districts with mathematically sound forecasts and scenarios for future developments in the respective regions.
With the help of SUCCe-D’s interactive dashboard, forecasts can be made for all cities, regions and counties in Germany, ranging from one day to 14 days in advance. By entering various parameters, it is possible to simulate how the Corona situation is likely to develop in each of the next two weeks under various conditions and on the basis of mathematical calculation models.
With the free offer STAT-UP wants to support above all districts, cities and municipalities with the data-based decision making approximately around Corona. Individual forecasts and simulations can also be created on request for individual municipalities and regions with special conditions.
In the interactive, free dashboard, the SUCCe-D app processes complex data sets: Current as well as historical data on the course of the Corona crisis with a wide variety of key figures (infection figures, intensive care patients, reproduction rate, incidence, vaccination figures and rates, and much more). Forecasts of hospital bed utilization and the number of physicians and nurses needed are also possible within the dashboard. In a joint project with Ludwigs-Maximilians-Universität in Munich, the results of the forecasts are being validated. LMU is also reviewing which simulation and calculation models can more accurately predict future developments to calculate the 7-day incidence forecasts in the SUCCe-D app. This is to determine probabilities of occurrence of critical values (e.g., exceeding an incidence of 100) as precisely as possible. The aim of the forecast calculations is to significantly increase the planning reliability for the groups affected by possible measures (e.g. retail trade, gastronomy, pupils and their parents).
“Decision-makers in politics and business are rightly expected to develop scenarios and ways out of the pandemic. To do this, they need reliable data on the one hand and valid assessments of how the Corona situation will develop at the national, regional and local levels on the other. The forecasts provided by the SUCCe-D app are intended to help decision-makers make the right decisions for their area of responsibility at an early stage,” says Katharina Schüller, CEO of STAT-UP.
More information about the Corona Care app SUCCE-D can be found at: www.succe-d.de
Find our more on STAT-UP here: STAT-UP Statistical Consulting & Data Science — STAT-UP (stat-up.com)